Region 9 Boys: A Deep Dive
Going through this year's regionals, a few stand out as particularly tough cases to prognosticate. Let's take a closer look at Region 9's boys' race: the most unusual, confusing, storyline-packed regional in the state.
Note: if you gave me an answer for this piece, I almost certainly edited it for grammar and clarity.
Another note: I am NOT doing this for every region. Probably just this one.
Final note: I guess I have a blog now? This is going to be my primary thing now, stay tuned for more fun stuff.
Region Overview
the blue circle is where the course is!
- The Grosse Pointe schools are sent here, away from the traditionally weaker Detroit-based Region 8, for the first time...ever? At the very least, it hasn't happened since before any of these runners were born.
- The Oakland wing of the region has almost entirely been dropped. Various teams have drifted away for a year or two, especially Clarkston and Lake Orion, but this is the first time I've ever seen just one Oakland school (Stoney Creek) in Region 9.
The Teams
Romeo: ready to prove they belong
let me know if y'all want me to start using the bulldog logo
First, let me explain what's going on in that table.
- The names listed are my projected top seven for each team, in order.
- I've ranked all 42 runners (6 teams times 7 members) in order based on their 2021 XC results and 2022 track results. If someone didn't have results for track season, I just gave them a ranking that was as close as possible to their XC ranking.
- "Best XC #" is their best XC speed rating (from the excellent Matt Armelagos) from 2021.
- Track times are track times.
A Brief Interview With: Nick Fringer, Romeo alum
Why will Romeo make states?
"The younger group will step up. We've had a young team before, my sophomore year [2018] and we made states."
Why won't Romeo make states?
"The guys who have been viewed as team leaders are graduating and taking their leadership with them."
Right now, Romeo is sort of the nouveau riche of D1. They've got a state title, with a top-ten finish either side of it and a 4th place in 2017. They've had Jack Kelke, Brenden Allen, and the Wilson twins. But what's missing? Staying power. Here's the past 20 seasons of Romeo's trips to MIS:
It's all recent. Massive credit to Mike Buslepp and the runners themselves for building this program, but if Romeo is going to be discussed like Rockford, Milford, or Pioneer, the Bulldogs need to show that this isn't just a phase. And this year is the perfect setup to prove it. Top programs like those mentioned above (plus my own alma mater of Saline) don't rebuild, they reload. Those four schools have combined to make 82 of a possible 88 state meets since 2000, and have only missed the top 20 twice. Perhaps the bar isn't that high, but top programs deal with adversity differently than most.
Romeo's now dealing with their worst adversity in over a decade. The Bulldogs lose three of last year's top four (Kelke, Sharnas, and Wallace) - the leaders that Nick referenced in his answer. That leaves only junior Connor Clor to lead the team. He's fast, he's reliable, not much to talk about there. The fun part is everyone else. Looking strictly at XC times for now, there's honestly not much standing out. Bryce Goodsell's MIS 17:12 was impressive, but that was as Romeo's 5th man; having your #2 run above 17 minutes is a good way to miss states. What Romeo does have, even from last fall, is depth. The range from 17:50 to 18:30 is absolutely packed, and most of those guys are young.
If there's one thing stopping me from guaranteeing a Romeo trip to MIS, it's the lack of prior XC success from the (many, many) potential 3rd-5th guys. I trust in Buslepp's ability to get his runners ready, and I would not be surprised to see Romeo finishing in the top ten in November. Unfortunately, when you're relying on kids who've never broken 18 minutes, you don't always know what you'll get. Some certainly will disappoint. But with something like 15 options, I'm confident that the Bulldogs can find 3 breakout stars and make their case to join the D1 aristocracy.
Port Huron Northern: a top-ten team on a knife's edge
who's a good boy? you are, logo! you are!
A Brief Interview With: Glen Davis, Port Huron Northern senior
Why will PHN make states?
"We're returning our scoring five this year, and I think we've got an unmatched connection together that has only grown from last year."
Why won't PHN make states?
"The only concern, I'd say, is lacking depth. Being a smaller team, who knows what could happen with that."
Another Brief Interview, To Really Drive The Point Home, With: Paul Nevado, Port Huron Northern head coach
Why will PHN make states?
"It's an experienced team made of upperclassman: 3 seniors and the rest juniors. Qualifying for state finals last year as a team has really motivated them to qualify again this year."
Why won't PHN make states?
"My number one goal each season is to get to the regional healthy. This season more than any other, that will be true as we don’t have great depth. If there’s even one injury or one athlete that can’t run the regional, it will negatively affect our team’s chances."
The Huskies got 23rd at MIS last fall with a very tight-knit top five - just look at those rankings and ratings! The scoring spread at regionals last year was a mere 12 seconds; I've never seen anything else like it.
Sure, nobody's really a low-stick, but we're not asking them to win states here. Five strong runners should get the job done, and that's why you'll probably see PHN as the top-ranked team in this region, and a borderline top ten squad in D1, entering the season. But if someone gets hurt? Well, let's look at that regional meet again:
So what do I expect for PHN? If the Huskies stay healthy - which, historically, these five guys do a pretty good job of - the sky's the limit. Fifth place at MIS is achievable, maybe someone has a breakout season and gets all-state. PHN is one of the state's most consistent overachievers, and I don't see any reason for that to stop now. But one stress fracture, and this rockfight of a region gets even rockfightier.
Stoney Creek: the Oakland County enigma
a very pleasing shade of blue, I think
A Brief Interview With: Myself, because I couldn't find anyone to talk to from Stoney.
Why will Stoney Creek make states?
"Zach Larson and Evan Lord can continue their improvement from the spring and give the Cougars two more low sticks."
Why won't Stoney Creek make states?
"Those inconsistent track results turn out to indicate a disappointing XC season."
For a few years now, Stoney has been my go-to case study in program building. The potential was there - a big, rich Oakland County school with a large team and a bit of previous success - but not the results. Then Harrison Steen showed up, became an all-state runner, and brought the team to new heights. 
2017 was Harrison's senior year, and Stoney's first trip to MIS since 2010. You can see that the Cougars only got better afterwards, thanks to guys like Tristan Brandenburg and Sam Tarling keeping the excellence going. Sure, they fell 17 points short of states last fall, but they had to replace 4 of their top 5. With a more experienced group coming back, can they make their return to Brooklyn? In short: I have no idea.
Stoney's biggest strength, and biggest cause for confusion, is junior Chaz Huthwaite. Chaz is a great runner, owning a top-ten regional finish and a 16:33 Spartan Invite performance. It's easy to see him as the #1 guy on a state-qualifying team. But if we want to look at his track results, to make sure he's still running well: there aren't any! Ever! I don't know Chaz, I don't know why he doesn't run track, but his sole springtime result on A-net is a 4x8 from 7th grade. So I'm left to make predictions solely from his XC times, which I don't like doing. It's a similar story with 3rd man Owen Murray. Owen does compete in the spring, but he's primarily a high jumper, also running the occasional dual-meet 800. Two of this team's most crucial runners haven't run a meaningful race since 2021. Will they be good this fall? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
how does one "lead with helpful"
Along with things like culture-building and accountability and commitment, Stoney owes much of its recent success to the program at Hart Middle School. The Eagles are sending another good one across the street to Stoney this year, with 4:59/10:54 kid Brock Washburn. Brock also already has some 5K experience - an 18:32 (from the MITCA race last fall) isn't going to turn many heads at the high school level, but it's great for an 8th grader who's used to 3200s.
Lastly, the most positive indicator for Stoney's success this fall is the great track season from Evan Lord and Zach Larson. Evan had a solid start to an unfortunately short XC campaign last fall, but he came back in the spring to run 4:34/10:03. Zach, not even top 7 in the fall, got some huge PRs and finished up at 4:40/10:18. Along with Owen Murray, these two will form the core of the Stoney Creek lineup.
There's really not much else to say about the Cougars; they'll show up and, if all goes well, get the job done.
Fraser: strong foundations and a dream of more
horse!
horse!
A Brief Interview With: Kevin Storai, Fraser head coach
Why will Fraser make states?
"The continued growth and development of the culture. We are well-positioned with our returning leaders, a few new additions, and several who have seen amazing jumps over the last nine months."
"The continued growth and development of the culture. We are well-positioned with our returning leaders, a few new additions, and several who have seen amazing jumps over the last nine months."
Why won't Fraser make states?
"Overall inexperience at high-level XC meets. We have some young men who will need to step up in the clutch that have never been top 5 or even done XC at all."
Kevin's answers set up for just about everything I wanted to say here. Fraser is a program with enormous potential and a ton of forward momentum, but the Ramblers are building from the ground up. The good news is, at worst, this is a top-5 team in the region with a very bright future. Fraser's only been to states once (25th place in 1986), but the trophy cabinet isn't as bare as it might seem. There's been at least one Rambler at MIS for the past eight years, with Joey Tavalieri and Steven Stine going all-state. They've won their league (2018), and had teams capable of going to states (11 points away in 2019). The foundation for a good program has been there for a while; now it's time to use it.
The cornerstone of the overly long metaphor is senior Justin Roose. 5th in Region 8 last year, Justin has already shown an ability to succeed on grass. Tyler Donovan has that experience, too, making it to Brooklyn last fall and PRing by 17 seconds once he got there. Both guys, however, were far more impressive in the spring. In his second meet of the year, Justin finished runner-up at the OU 1600, then ran under 4:25 again a week later at Barnyard, where Tyler also broke 4:30. Neither one raced the 3200 much, but Justin's 9:34 and Tyler's 9:49 showed that they weren't just mid-distance kids. If all goes well, Justin and Tyler will both comfortably qualify for states and contend for an all-state medal.
The other varsity spots, as of last October, were less well-set. The rest of the team combined for just one sub-18:00 race, and three sub-18:30s. At regionals, the Ramblers couldn't keep 5 scorers under 20 minutes, as the team finished 6th in D1's weakest region.
But once again, something changed over the winter. Connor Steepe, whose promising XC season turned into an 89th-place finish at Chandler Park, completed the spring with a 10:20 3200 at the county meet. Brendan Smigielski and Andrew Thomson both ran 10:58 at Barnyard. Most excitingly, probable varsity guy Lucas Shemansky finished the season with PRs of 5:00 and 10:59. Here are his XC results:
Now, I know what you're saying. "Running fast for two miles on a track in April says nothing about a 5K in the mud in October!" And there's some truth to that: track success is not a guarantee of XC success, and we all know people who prove that. I can promise you, though, that Coach Storai is quite happy to have six returners who've broken 11 minutes. Really, we should call it seven returners: incoming freshman Lance Edghill's 17:28 indoor track 5K may not be a sub-11 3200, but it's certainly proof of something good.
As for those kids who haven't done XC at all: they're not included in the ranking yet. (There's some listed on A-net, though not everyone on the A-net roster always ends up racing XC.) It's hard enough to project XC performances from year to year, but guessing 5K times off of 800s is downright impossible. If those bets pay off, though, it could make the difference between a trip to MIS and regional heartbreak.
So what to think of Fraser? This is a program that should see consistent success sooner rather than later. How soon? I'll get back to you on that.
"Overall inexperience at high-level XC meets. We have some young men who will need to step up in the clutch that have never been top 5 or even done XC at all."
Kevin's answers set up for just about everything I wanted to say here. Fraser is a program with enormous potential and a ton of forward momentum, but the Ramblers are building from the ground up. The good news is, at worst, this is a top-5 team in the region with a very bright future. Fraser's only been to states once (25th place in 1986), but the trophy cabinet isn't as bare as it might seem. There's been at least one Rambler at MIS for the past eight years, with Joey Tavalieri and Steven Stine going all-state. They've won their league (2018), and had teams capable of going to states (11 points away in 2019). The foundation for a good program has been there for a while; now it's time to use it.
The cornerstone of the overly long metaphor is senior Justin Roose. 5th in Region 8 last year, Justin has already shown an ability to succeed on grass. Tyler Donovan has that experience, too, making it to Brooklyn last fall and PRing by 17 seconds once he got there. Both guys, however, were far more impressive in the spring. In his second meet of the year, Justin finished runner-up at the OU 1600, then ran under 4:25 again a week later at Barnyard, where Tyler also broke 4:30. Neither one raced the 3200 much, but Justin's 9:34 and Tyler's 9:49 showed that they weren't just mid-distance kids. If all goes well, Justin and Tyler will both comfortably qualify for states and contend for an all-state medal.
The other varsity spots, as of last October, were less well-set. The rest of the team combined for just one sub-18:00 race, and three sub-18:30s. At regionals, the Ramblers couldn't keep 5 scorers under 20 minutes, as the team finished 6th in D1's weakest region.
But once again, something changed over the winter. Connor Steepe, whose promising XC season turned into an 89th-place finish at Chandler Park, completed the spring with a 10:20 3200 at the county meet. Brendan Smigielski and Andrew Thomson both ran 10:58 at Barnyard. Most excitingly, probable varsity guy Lucas Shemansky finished the season with PRs of 5:00 and 10:59. Here are his XC results:
As for those kids who haven't done XC at all: they're not included in the ranking yet. (There's some listed on A-net, though not everyone on the A-net roster always ends up racing XC.) It's hard enough to project XC performances from year to year, but guessing 5K times off of 800s is downright impossible. If those bets pay off, though, it could make the difference between a trip to MIS and regional heartbreak.
So what to think of Fraser? This is a program that should see consistent success sooner rather than later. How soon? I'll get back to you on that.
Grosse Pointe South: a dynamic duo
I have nothing clever to say about this
A Brief Interview With: me, again!
Why will GPS make states?
"Detweiler and Downey are the best 1-2 in this region by any metric, and the younger guys have tons of potential."
Why won't GPS make states?
"Those younger guys haven't been the most consistent, and things get tricky after the top 5."
oh yes, I do have an in-progress spreadsheet of state qualifications! you'll maybe see it someday
The good news is that South's two returners are both excellent runners. Logan Detweiler was all-state last year, and Brendan Downey hovered around 17:00 for most of the fall. Their spring seasons were even better:
- Jack Martin, a sophomore in the fall, had a strong high school track debut, ending up at 4:44 and 10:44 by the end of the season.
- Aptly named 4th man Jet Miller looked great as well, finishing just above 11 minutes in the 3200.
- Tommy Caulfield showed some range with both a 62 400 and a 11:25 3200.
That's all pretty good, and if the Blue Devils can get through the season at 100% health, they'll be in a great spot to qualify. If not, though, they could be in real trouble. As mentioned before, the returning depth from XC is severely lacking - even the better times (19:00ish) from potential 6th/7th guys were at very fast courses like Willow and Gabriel Richard. Looking at track results, the situation's even more dire. No other returners even ran a 3200! It's entirely possible someone will step up and save the day, but you can't count on that.
Strictly from last year's XC results, Grosse Pointe South is in a great position, and definitely should be favored to return to MIS. But there are some real weaknesses here, and qualification might come down to some good luck and unexpected saviors.
Anchor Bay: tomorrow's top team, today
I believe a Tar has something to do with boats?
A Brief Interview With: Jeff Payne, Anchor Bay head coach
Why will Anchor Bay make states?
"If we qualify, it's because we avoided injury and developed depth. I am confident that if we stay injury free we will be as strong as anyone in the region up front."
Why won't Anchor Bay make states?
"If we don't, it's because we were not deep enough. Our 5-7 are my biggest concern."
I'm actually not going to talk about the 5th man issue quite yet, because there's some crucial background info you need to understand Anchor Bay. In short, this was not a great team last October - and then six months later, the Tars became the hottest program in Michigan. How'd that happen? Let's dive in.
- Thomas Westphal made the most dramatic jump, going from 17:30s to all-state in the 1600 and becoming one of the nation's best young milers. Hopefully you knew that.
- Freshman Greg Vogt improved massively, too: after only breaking 20 minutes once in the fall, Greg was consistently running 10:30s in the 3200 in the spring.
- Zach Rubicz broke 10 minutes twice and added a 4:31 full mile at Barnyard.
- Aidan Leslie cut 13 seconds off his 1600 PR and 56 off his 3200 PR, ending up at 4:45 and 10:35. He also joined Rubicz, Westphal, and Elijah Dealca on the Tars' MAC-Red-winning, school-record-breaking, nearly-states-making 4x8.
They're not Northville, but for a group that collectively hadn't broken 10:40 or 4:45 until the winter, those stats are incredible. Incredible enough to go to MIS? More on that in a second.
Anchor Bay doesn't need to make states this year. Their big four (Westphal, Rubicz, Vogt, Leslie) all will be back in 2023, as will potential 5th man Gabe Rusch. If improvement continues, they'll be headed to Brooklyn next fall. But it would definitely be nice to get some MIS experience this year, right? Unfortunately, like with Fraser, it's difficult to say what the Tars' chances are. Those track times are lovely, but Thomas is the only one who's proven himself in a 5K - a 16:09 in something called the Anchor Bay Fishfly Run, as seen below. I think they'll be good, but we won't really know until the season begins. (Worth noting that Greg ran an 18:02 in the same race, a huge improvement over his XC times, so we actually do have some proof of his 5K ability.)
seriously though, great job Thomas
Anchor Bay isn't like the other programs in this analysis, even Fraser. The Tars haven't made states since the Carter administration. They've had one all-stater in 20 years. One top-ten regional finish since 2009. Two individual qualifiers in the past decade. Even just getting a top-five finish and sending Thomas to MIS would be a historic year for this school. But they want more, and I really think they can get that now - a year ahead of schedule.
Hey, Aren't There Other Teams Here?
Well, yes. That's not really what this article is about, and nearly every top runner in the region is from one of the top six teams. Nonetheless, some other names to know:
- Dylan Penberthy of L'Anse Creuse North finished 60th at MIS as a sophomore last fall,
and his track season (9:48, 3rd at regionals) was similarly good. He's potentially a future all-stater and LCN's best runner since at least Thomas Michno. - Ben Puzzuoli was L'Anse Creuse's first state qualifier in seven years, and even with the move to a tougher region, he's got a good shot at returning.
- Jack DeWaele only ran 17:50 last fall for Chippewa Valley, but his 10:13 at Farmington in the spring, backed up by a parade of 10:20-10:30 times throughout the season, shows the potential for something faster. The Big Reds haven't had a state qualifier in eight years.
Projections, Sort Of
Sort of. It's really just some very rudimentary rankings with the lightest dash of subjectivity, but it sums up everything I've said quite nicely. Remember the rank columns in the little boxes from before? That's all these are, plus team scores. And yes, there'll be more teams in the actual regional meet - LCN, Ike, and Dakota are the most likely to influence scoring - but this is just to give you a general idea. If you'd like to see all of this in one convenient PDF, well, have at it.
Using XC results, PHN is king. Things are pretty well spread out, honestly - only Romeo and Stoney are within 10 points of one another. Fraser and Anchor Bay, as expected, lag behind.
Track...is a little messier. Romeo is now on PHN's level, even slightly ahead, thanks largely to the exploits of Vince Guaresimo, while the unproven-in-XC duo of Fraser and Anchor Bay suddenly enter state meet contention. GPS falls back somewhat due to a weaker track season, but they're really not that far off.
Overall, it looks like it really could be anyone's game, especially if you're one of the (smart) folks who put a lot of stock into the predictive ability of track results. But you can choose how to interpret it for yourself.
Actual Projections
lol you can't make me do that
Conclusion
I for one am really excited to see how this all turns out. These are all programs I've come to appreciate, and I'd be thrilled for any combination of them to qualify.
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