2022 XC Longshot List

What Is This List?

    People who, in my opinion, have a chance at finishing top 30 at MIS, despite a lack of prior XC excellence. If in 2021 you were not all-state in XC, then you're eligible for this list! I've tried to skip over the more obvious picks - there's no educational value in talking about them, and this is a learning environment. I'd expect a few of these athletes to make all-state this fall. Many won't. Some may not even make states. But they're all worth knowing more about.

 

    Vishvaa's best-ever XC time is a 17:42 on what may well be Oakland County's flattest course. An 18:28 at counties is also solid given Possum Hollow's hills, but it's still only an 18:28. Unless your name is Thomas Westphal, it's gonna be tough to convince anyone why those times will suddenly become all-state times. And that's the point of the list - it's tough, but possible, to argue that Vishvaa will be an all-stater. 

    The case for the Troy boys to get their first all-stater since Kunal Tangri (to me, still the most underrated member of the vaunted class of 2015) rests on two races. First, a 9:46 at New Balance in early May earned Vishvaa an 11th-placed finish in the daytime section. Three weeks later, he bettered that PR by another 7 seconds en route to 5th place in a tight field at the county meet. It's not much, but those are excellent performances. By time, Vishvaa was the 19th-best non-senior in D1 in the 3200. Based solely on that, he's got a very good chance of hearing his name at the awards ceremony. And based solely on his XC history, he's got next to no chance. Put it all together, and you've got some very intriguing possibilities.

Now for a few other names you should keep in your head:

• Tyler Donovan, Fraser (11): Discussed more over here. Key to Fraser's rapid program-build, ran a 4:29 full mile in April.
• Sam Jackson, Saline (12): One of several Hornets with a big breakthrough this spring: couldn't break 5 last year, now he can do it for both halves of a 3200.
• Kenny Lewis, Heritage (11): Promising middle school times and freshman XC season (2020). 8th place in the 800 at states last month. Still unproven at longer distances, but if that mid-distance ability translates...
• Connor Martin, Lapeer (12): Ran mid-17s while primarily a football player last fall, 9:51 in the spring. Understandably focusing on XC this time around. Longest shot on the list, but very talented.
• Bryce Nowik, Clarkston (11): Had some good moments last fall (17:00 at Clintonwood), really broke through in track with a pair of 4:28s.

    The first thing to know about Jane Olney is there's two of her. Teammate Emma Gunnett has a shockingly similar résumé, perhaps a little faster in XC and comparable in track. I went with Jane for this list, though - maybe because she's a bit more of a longshot, maybe because she's improved faster from her less impressive middle school times. Either way, Jane figures to be at least a top-7 runner on D1's #1 team, and with a squad as dominant as West Ottawa, just about anyone on varsity is a candidate for all-state.

    Of course, Jane wasn't varsity at the end of 2021; after a year spent mostly in the top group, she didn't run in the Panthers' runner-up septet at MIS. There's a lot to like from her time in the top 7, though - look at the consistency through October's flat, fast courses. Track was consistent, too: a whole lot of low 5:30s and high 11s. (Also, a 19-foot shot put in a dual meet, because throwing large objects with your distance-runner friends is fun!) She didn't get all-region, thanks in large part to four other Panthers making the top five in the 3200, but sub-12 at regionals is excellent.

    I'm asking you to listen when I say that a sophomore who's never even run at a state meet has an opportunity to step onto the podium. (As an individual; the team podium seems very likely.) That's a big ask! But if you trust in what Kyle Barnes has built in Holland over the last few years, and see Jane's progress since her middle school days, it's easy to believe.

• Amyla Eberhart, South Lyon East (12): Part of the SLE group that's made two straight trips to MIS, she'll need to step up to fill in for the Cougars' injured #1. 3rd place at Oakland County (11:49) shows the talent is there.
• Shannon Gillahan, Okemos (11): Does have prior MIS experience (88th in 2020). A bit slower last fall, but the spring was her best season yet (5:23/11:30).
• Lea MacGregor, Howell (12): Went from barely under 22 minutes to 20:01 last fall, and followed it up with a 2:20 800 in May. Only has one year left, but Howell's made some surprises before.
• Abby Roth, Saline (10): Not even on Saline's varsity last fall, but still nearly broke 20 minutes (the Hornets are always deep). Could now be the #3 runner on a championship-caliber team.
• Sonya Shelgikar, Huron (11): Three trips under 20 minutes last fall, but unfortunately not at regionals. Mostly ran 800s and 1600s in the spring, but her 11:55 at the end of the season shows her best potential might be in longer events.

        Perhaps this isn't the most helpful infobox, but it's how a lot of people will see Ryan's résumé if they don't dig any deeper. Ryan missed almost all of last autumn with an injury, and he pretty much only raced the 1600 in the spring, but if you connect the dots, you'll see a kid who's probably the safest all-state pick on this list. 

    To understand why, let's do that infobox again, but for Freshman Ryan.

Do you get it now? By time (yes, yes, I know), Ryan was D2's 6th-fastest freshman in the fall, and one of just 8 freshmen statewide to break 10:00 in the 3200. That's incredible talent, and in a program like EGR's, you'd expect that talent to develop very well. His injury last fall certainly threw things off course, but that 4:26 is a great sign that he's bounced back and gotten on track. I asked new EGR head coach Drew Collette about why he thinks Ryan will be an all-state contender this fall:

    "He's highly motivated after an injury derailed his sophomore season, but will capitalize on     the promise of his 16:40 freshman showing. Ryan is bought-in to the new program, building     smart, and oozes confidence."

We'll have to wait and see if that works out, but I'm confident that if healthy, Ryan will be on the podium in November. (And given the preseason murkiness of D2 this year, I wouldn't be surprised if EGR stands on the MIS stage as a team, too.)

• Owen Fennelly, Swan Valley (10): Maybe a year too early to put him on here?  Nonetheless, a name to keep an eye on after a big improvement from freshman XC (18:00) to track (10:28). (And this is the longshot list, after all.) Would be Swan Valley's first state qualifier in a decade.
• Tyler Heath, Clio (12): Still lacks any outdoor accolades, but an excellent indoor season and a huge 1:56 in May (unfortunately after missing states) were steps in the right direction. Just needs to figure out the 5K and stay healthy.
• Jeb Hillary, Catholic Central (10): One of D2's best freshman last year, followed up an MIS trip with a 4:36 and a 10:13. CC is a program on the rise in West Michigan with a newfound ability to develop plenty of talent.
• Bryce Husen, Birch Run (12): Hadn't improved a ton from a strong freshman XC season, until cutting his 1600 down to a 4:33 this spring - especially notable as his winter was busy with making states in wrestling. Yet another case of "will this miler ability translate?"
• Landen Wise, Frankenmuth (10): A 4:32/10:04 double (at MITCA States) is incredible for a freshman. Doesn't have 5K experience yet, but surely he'll be good. Just a question of how soon. (Is also the fourth Region 15 runner listed!)

    There were other choices from Jefferson for this spot. Jenna Pilachowski and Riley Peer both had sub-12:00 track seasons, with a stronger XC history, too. But unlike those two, Kim hasn't ever run an individual race at a state meet. She's never broken 21 minutes, and her only high school win came from a largely uncontested dual-meet 800. Her track results, though, put her on the same level as the Bears' more experienced girls, and thus make her a good pick to sneak into the top 30 in November.

    Kim wasn't a bad middle school runner by any means. As an 8th-grader, she finished 6th in the Huron League in XC and broke 14 minutes a few times. Her inaugural high school season was about what you'd expect from that: one of the better freshmen in the area, but not really a threat overall in the region. Something changed over the winter, though, as it did for a lot of the Jefferson girls. By the end of track season, Kim worked her way down below 12 minutes in the 3200, and she split a 2:28 800 on Jefferson's 3rd-place 4x8 at states. So the pitch here is pretty simple: an already solid young runner got way better across several distances, and she's part of a rapidly improving team that seems destined for an MIS berth. We'll see someone from Jefferson on the podium this fall; why not Kim Miller?

• Jolie Fisher, Shepherd (12): Two years in the low 20s in XC. Finally got a big breakthrough this spring: 10-second PR in the 800, 16 seconds in the 1600, and trips to states with the Bluejays' 4x4 and 4x8.
• Nadia Grierson, Ludington (10): Solid freshman season didn't lead to MIS, but did include great progress throughout the spring, culminating in a 12:07 in May.
• Marlina Howell, Forest Hills Eastern (10): Likely a major contributor as the Hawks shoot for their first trophy in a decade, Marlina has already progressed by a full minute in the 3200 from her middle school PR.
• Cami Kraai, Whitehall (10): Came in as one of West Michigan's best freshmen, but only got to race twice in the fall. 11th at states in the 800 should be a good reminder that she's still around.
• Sophy Skeels, Adrian (10): The most talented Maples runner? Perhaps not, but freshman PRs of 5:28 and 12:21 say that Sophy has a chance to get on the all-state podium just like the Adrian boys have.

       Switching divisions is never easy. Had Whiteford stayed in D4 in 2021-22, Keegan's MIS time would have placed him 50th in the state. In D3, he didn't even crack the top 100. But despite the tougher grading curve, Keegan has done nothing but thrive in D3. His consistent improvement is really something:

All of his PRs have improved every single year! Sure, it would take about a minute of improvement to get into all-state contention this fall, but with his 3200m times dropping by nearly that much annually, is it really that absurd? Keegan should have some good local competition, too: Ida's Dylan Tengler is in much the same boat, and Jackson Ansel of Erie Mason was the final D3 all-stater last year. All will be fighting for a regional title with the Kippnick boys from Manchester.

    Once again, there's not all that much to discuss here. Keegan is on track to get a medal sooner or later, we just don't know when.

• Connor Donahue, St. Francis (12): Missed almost all of last season, and really only has one great XC race (a 17:39 from 2020 Shepherd). But: he was great from 800 to 3200 in the spring.
• Ethan Glick, Constantine (12): Almost an identical CV as Keegan Masters has - just a little better at XC states, and a little slower at track states. Wouldn't be surprised to see both on the podium.
• Levi Kamps, Covenant Christian (10): After a solid freshman fall, was excellent in Covenant's first-ever track season, finishing 7th in the 3200 in a tough region. 
• Max Mader, Bishop Foley (12): Foley's finally in an XC region with good competition, and Max will be tasked with leading the Ventures back to MIS for the fifth straight year. What gets him on this list? A six-second improvement in the 800 - certainly not a 5K, but a sign of increased fitness of some sort.
• Charlie Stormer, Saugatuck (12): Already a sub-20 5Ker in middle school, Charlie has gradually progressed down to the low 18s. It's his far more dramatic track progression down to a 10:29 (plus the benefit of the doubt given Saugatuck's history) that earns him a mention.

    Union City, ten miles northwest of Coldwater on the St. Joe River, hasn't had XC success in nearly three decades. Dana Silva, runner-up in the individual race in 1993, remains the Chargers' most recent all-state medalist, and the team has only seen six girls break 24:00 in the past decade. And while Skyler's freshman year of XC was certainly a solid start, there were over 200 girls sub-22:00 last year in D3. Of the eight highlighted runners in this article, she's the one you're least likely to have heard of. So why is she here?

    The easy answer is to just look at her track season. Her 12:45 3200 in the final meet of the spring places her 34th among returning D3 girls, and a 12:47 a week prior at regionals shows it wasn't a fluke. 5:59 for 1600 at the same meet doesn't rate quite as highly, but it's still a solid time and a step in the right direction. There's something else interesting here, though:

In both XC and track, Skyler made large improvements throughout the season, and PRed at the final meet at every distance. This even applies to her middle school XC 2-mile races! As much as we all want to be peaking at the end of the season, it's hard to do it so consistently. So if you want someone who'll be at her best at regionals and states, come on down to Union City.

• Samantha LaFountain, St. Mary CC (11): Lots of attention on her younger sister Bella, one of Michigan's top incoming freshmen, but Samantha's progressed a lot from XC with a 13:11 3200 in the spring.
• Emma Miller, Buchanan (10): Consistently under 13 minutes in the 3200, a mark which she had never come close to before this spring.
• Cecilia Postma, Manistee (11): Already a history of big improvements in XC. Got all-region in the 1600 and 3200 in D3's toughest regional.
• Ashley Shindorf, Vassar (12): One of D3's best 800m runners, bounced back well from a down year in 2020 and is on the verge of 20 minutes.
• Tessa Wohlschlegel, Beaverton (11): After a lucky qualification to MIS last year (only getting through thanks to 4th-place Reese making states), had her breakthrough race at states with a 30-second PR. Major improvements in track, too, getting down to 12:42.

    Joburg was the story of the regular season last fall in D4, but failed to win the team championship due to some unfortunately timed Covid positives. With four of the Cardinals' top five coming back, they'll be in a great position to get that trophy. Three of those returners - Jacob Wartenburg, Malaki Gascho, and Blake Fox - already have all-state medals, and should be able to repeat in 2022. Ronin Vaden, the fourth returner, doesn't.

    By all rights, Ronin had a great 2021 season. Only a 20:45 runner as a freshman in 2019 (at the lightning-fast East Jordan course, no less), he was Joburg's 5th man for the majority of 2021. A sub-18:00 breakthrough at regionals could've been a springboard to a great day at MIS...and then he couldn't race. It's unlikely that Ronin would've been all-state; based on how Joburg's other runners did at MIS, somewhere around 60th seems about right - but about 20 of the top 60 have graduated. That alone is enough to make him an all-state candidate. Throw in the great improvements we've seen for just about every Cardinal under the coaching of Brenden Marcum, and you might just have D4's best under-the-radar athlete.

    

• Michael Allen, East Jackson (11): Hasn't broken 18 minutes yet, but 4:55 and 10:39 are much more impressive. Was pretty good in middle school - perhaps that talent is finally going to translate to the 5K.
• Noah Finton, Potter's House (11): Similar to Michael, two years of high-18s XC times without a ton of change, but massive improvements in track. 5:27 1600 as a freshman, 4:51 as a sophomore.
• John Schoen, Capac (12): Maybe the strongest candidate in all of D4, with (barely) a sub-18 at MIS and a top-ten finish in the 800. Yet another state-level wrestler.
• Jobe Skaff, Novi Christian (11): 22:11 as a freshman, 18:00 as a sophomore. Part of Novi Christian's sudden emergence as a D4 contender; even without the shiny track times of the other guys here, his improvement gets him on the list.
• Alex Tyndall, Mason County Eastern (10): Barely raced XC as a freshman, with his best race probably being the 19:13 at Buckley. Turned right around and ran 11:03 in May.

    Junior year was really a tale of two seasons for Coleman's Kaylee Aultman. 21:53 and a trip to MIS isn't bad by any means, but Kaylee didn't PR once last autumn, and finished 45 spots lower than her previous state meet appearance. That's not someone you'd expect to be making all-state the next season, right? As the calendar turned to 2022, though, Kaylee got much faster. A 5:46/12:42 combo at regionals was a huge breakthrough, and she finished the spring with a 17th-place finish in the 3200 at states with another big PR. 17th at the state meet and 22nd overall by 3200 PR? Sure sounds like an XC all-stater to me.

    The one caveat here is Kaylee's 2021 track season, which was also very good. She didn't break 13, but did make it to states (and finished higher, albeit in a much weaker field). Track success didn't convert to XC success in 2021, but that doesn't mean the same will happen this year.

• Rosalinda Gascho, Johannesburg-Lewiston (11): Part of the family that's been a huge part of Joburg XC in recent years, improved over two minutes from freshman to sophomore year. Primarily hurdled in track, but made big gains in both distances, and threw in a 13:34 3200, too (after racing both hurdle races).
• Meagan Lange, Forest Area (12): Has a top-50 finish at MIS, but struggled in the fall of 2021, only breaking 23 minutes once. Given her subsequent all-state 800m finish, perhaps that XC season was just a bump in the road.
• Priya Mericle, East Jackson (10): Solid freshman season capped off with a big PR at MIS, followed up with a pair of regional 3rd places in the 1600 and 3200. Between Priya and Michael Allen, the Trojans may well end up with two all-staters this fall.
• Jacqueline Morton, Sacred Heart (11): Has thrived in the excellent Irish program, living up to the potential of her great middle school times with a series of PRs to close out her sophomore XC season. A 13:07 in track only serves to add more evidence of improvement.
• Isabella Yeoman, Genesee (11): By times, best XC season was freshman year. By placings, it was sophomore year. Expect both of those to be exceeded this fall after a spring season chock-full of PRs that featured three all-region placings.