This is gonna be a long one, folks. Get some coffee, maybe order a pizza.

The Rule

Directly from the MHSAA:

If a school finishes fourth in the Regional Meet with four or more runners in the top 20 places,

and eight (8) or more complete teams finish the race, that school will also qualify a team for the Final Meet.

Pretty straightforward. Presumably, the intent is to get worthy teams from strong regions, but that's not necessarily what ends up happening. The ideal 4th-place qualifier is a team that's not in a strong region, doesn't have a low stick, and has a big gap between their #4 and #5 runners. Why?

If the region has 2 or 3 dominant teams, too many of the top-20 spots will be taken up.
If they've got a low stick, there's a good chance they finish in the top 3 and qualify directly for states.
If the 5th runner is close to the top 4, the team is once again probably good enough to just qualify the normal way.

Say, how about we take a look at how that's worked in practice?

The Recent History

Quick note: the regional scores might not quite add up: that's due to runners from incomplete teams, who do count towards the top 20 but don't factor in scoring.

Also, Hamilton last year doesn't count: that had nothing to do with the top-20 rule.

2021 Saginaw Heritage Girls (4th Runner: Emily Honeman)

Last year's Heritage girls were the stereotypical 4th team. Only one runner was all-region (and barely at that), the 4-5 gap was almost a full minute, and only one dominant team was in the region. Freshman Emily Honeman secured the magic 20th spot by a whopping 1.6 seconds, sending the Hawks to MIS. Interestingly, if Heritage had closed the gap on Dow and qualified directly, Dow wouldn't have come close to getting the extra spot.

2021 Grand Rapids Catholic Central Boys (4th Runner: Ian Richthammer)

Once again, look at that 4-5 gap! And look at where the 1st runner is! The Cougars squeezed their top four into a 14-second span, then had to wait over 90 seconds for their 5th to come in (with the gap back to 5th place Unity Christian being what it was, GRCC's 5th could've run a 20:30 and still been fine). Neither Spring Lake nor Allendale would've gone through as a 4th team; GRC and CC took 10 of the top 20 spots between them.

2021 Bath Boys (4th Runner: Jonah Siemssen)

Unlike our earlier examples, Bath entered this meet with no real chance to make top 3. In every other way, this is extremely similar. Tight 1-4 pack, 28-spot gap to the #5, that'll get you to MIS. Moving along:

2021 Reese Girls (4th Runner: Brooke Sweeney)

Reese mostly stuck to the tried-and-true formula, but there's a couple interesting twists here. Jenna Sweeney was a genuine low stick for the Rockets in 5th place, and they needed that - Meridian finished just 9 points back in 5th. And if Meridian had edged past Reese, they likely would've received an extra qualifier! The Mustangs went 14-16-17-21, and it's not hard to imagine their #4, Taylor Hopkins, moving up a couple spots as part of the hypothetical 9-point swing. Sandusky, meanwhile, would not have moved on if Reese placed 3rd. In a final bit of fun, this race was immediately before Heritage's race at the same course! Drama abounds! (I was there, it was incomprehensibly cold and muddy and wet and miserable, and these conditions were only slightly alleviated by the 4th-place chaos.)

2019 Sterling Heights Stevenson Girls (4th Runner: Jade Burnett)

In a significantly weak region (the team scores drop off a cliff after the #6 team), it's no surprise that we find another 4th place qualifier. Royal Oak and Stevenson took the final two spots at states by a comfortable margin, so once again, we've got a qualifier whose absence at states probably wouldn't have been noticed.

2019 Whitmore Lake Boys (4th Runner: Bailey Adams)

Whitmore Lake lines up as one of the less conventional 4th teams (only 13 spots between their 4th and 5th runners), and not coincidentally, they're one of the better ones, too. This region had five state-caliber teams (5th being Saranac, who scored 96), and it's great that four made the trip to Brooklyn. With only nine complete teams, it was easier for the Trojans to squeeze their top four in the requisite range.

2017 Forest Hills Eastern Girls (4th Runner: Kiah Becker)

Now this is exactly what people want out of an extra qualifier. Leaving a top-ten team at home wouldn't feel right, and FHE did just enough to get through. The Hawks were the only team to put 4 in the top 20, incidentally - not even state champs Lansing Catholic managed it, though the Cougars were without a top runner. St. Johns, just 3 points behind FHE, probably also could've placed in the top ten at MIS, but alas, there's no 5th-place rule.

2017 Stockbridge Boys (4th Runner: Colin Lilley)

A pretty standard result here, though Micah Beauregard's runner-up finish is unusual for an extra-qualifying team. Stockbridge squeezing the other three in as late as possible did enough to counteract that, however. You'll notice this is yet another Region 24 case - why's that? It could entirely be luck, but the Lansing area does tend to be quite strong in D3, and this region typically is on the smaller side.

2017 Sanford Meridian Girls (4th Runner: Katie Blanchard)

We've got a three-minute gap from Meridian's 4th to 5th here. Otherwise, this is routine. The Mustangs did need everything they could get to hold off Hemlock for the 4th spot, getting it by just 3 points.

2017 Whitmore Lake Boys (4th Runner: Colton Seigle)

Potentially the wildest example on this list. First, kudos to Whitmore Lake for pulling this off twice in three years! And look closer at the scores - the Trojans were only 4th by virtue of losing a tiebreaker to Greenhills. Had they shaved off one more point somewhere, they'd still be in, but the Gryphons would fail to qualify. Ida, just 16 points back, easily could've stolen the third spot instead, and who knows what would've happened at #4 then. As it was, four teams made it out, giving us a rare 29-team state meet in D3.

2017 Hesperia Boys (4th Runner: Connor Baird)

We'll close on a bit of an oddball. Hesperia mostly fits the bill: weaker region, no low stick, but what's their 5th runner doing in the top 25? The region shook out to be rather low-scoring and very close (5th place Martin scored 96), Hesperia took the no-low-sticks rule about as far as it can go, and the region was right on the 8-team minimum. Bridgman, oddly enough, looks more like an extra-qualifying team in terms of their 4-5 gap, but the Bees made it in automatically (and their 4th boy wasn't top 20, in any case).

A Preview of 2022 Candidates

So now that we know the look of a 4th place qualifier, what teams this season have the perfect setup? I'll be listing the A-net time rankings, which are...messy. But I'm not ranking 20+ runners in every single region for this article, so a critical reading of the times will have to suffice.

Rockford Boys (currently 4th)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 4, 13, 17, 22, 41

Rockford may well qualify automatically - the Rams were just two points behind current #3 Jenison at the first OK Red meet last week - but if not, they've got a classic lineup. Their 4th and 5th have been 30-40 seconds apart lately, and the region is strong enough that Colin Graham's likely top-5 finish won't push Rockford into the top 3.

Traverse City Central Girls (currently 4th)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 18, 21, 22, 23, 37

It's extremely weird to see TCC on the outside looking in, and they may well strengthen in October, getting into states quite safely. For now, they're facing a tough regional with no projected all-region runners, which isn't a great spot to be in - unless their pack makes it inside the top 20.

Hartland Girls (currently 4th)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 10, 15, 16, 19, 42

The Eagles look at first glance to be a perfect candidate: 4 solid runners, big gap, little chance of breaking into the incredible top 3. Their biggest problem: not losing 4th place. Grand Blanc and Howell, like Hartland, both have strong teams capable of beating some folks at MIS, and both have pulled off qualification miracles in recent years. I'd be surprised if this one wasn't down to the wire.

Wyandotte Girls (currently 4th)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 2, 23, 24, 25, 36

Whoever is the 3rd team out of Region 5 will probably be expected to take 27th at states. But what if 4 teams make it? Wyandotte is in a similar position to TCC: improvement from the top 4 may well get the Bears to MIS directly, but if it doesn't (quite possible, if Bedford improves) they're in a great spot.

Bedford Girls (currently 3rd)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 12, 19, 21, 22, 26

Oh yeah, this can go the other way, too. It's probably less likely simply because Bedford looks like a stronger team, but their pack is exactly in the right place. It may seem a bit crazy to be talking about this when Saline and Pioneer could easily take 14 top-20 spots, but this region is stratified to an absurd degree. Bedford and Wyandotte could easily account for 5 of the remaining spots in that scenario!

Farmington Girls (currently 2nd)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 1, 8, 13, 15, 46

The A-net rankings are exceptionally inaccurate in this region, with some teams only racing slower courses thus far, so Farmington - having raced at Jackson - is probably a bit overrated on there. It's definitely unusual for a team with a (potential) regional champ to dance the 4th-place tango, but check out the Stockbridge boys above to see how it's done. The 4-5 gap is big, and it's quite conceivable that the Falcons could be passed by any two of Milford, Lakeland, Novi, or Walled Lake Western.

Clarkston Boys (currently 2nd)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 7, 9, 10, 11, 29

I think Oxford will make states. They're improving, ran well at the regional course last week, and haven't had the advantage of running fast courses already like the other teams in this region. And though Clarkston isn't the most likely to be bumped in my opinion (sorry, Utica! You're a good team, I like y'all!), they fit the extra-qualifier criteria beautifully. Their top 4 absolutely should make the top 20 even on a bad day, and their #5 would need a great day to do so. It'll take some surprises for the Wolves to be 4th, but if they are, I'd say they're actually likely to qualify!

Utica Girls (currently 4th)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 6, 10, 14, 16, 26

And here's the exact same team. There's probably a little less margin for error, but also a better chance of ending up outside the top 3. (I see the three-way race between Utica, Clarkston, and Rochester as roughly even.) Everything else applies exactly as it does for the Clarkston boys.

Eisenhower Girls (currently 5th)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 9, 18, 31, 32, 63

Eisenhower currently does not have four girls in the top 20. They may not even have two. But the Eagles make this list because of the very hard 4th-place ceiling they've got: get those four in the top 20, and you're still almost certainly behind the three elite teams at the top of the region. Fraser and the Grosse Pointes will be contending for the spot too, but none are set up well for the extra qualifier.

Allendale Boys (currently 3rd)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 8, 12, 16, 21, 45

The fourth runner (currently Ronnie Silveira) is in the right spot for this young Falcons team. But will they be in a position to take advantage of the top-20 rule? Maybe! Regional rivals Hamilton actually beat them by a point at the first OK Blue jamboree, with Spring Lake not far behind. There's a pretty decent chance one of the two can pass the host squad (but ideally not both, of course).

South Christian Girls (currently 4th)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 16, 18, 19, 23, 32

A familiar story: the Sailors have the top four in the right place, but might just be too good. They seem to be in a tight battle for the third spot with:

West Michigan Aviation Girls (currently 3rd)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 5, 15, 20, 21, 29

Only one of these two can automatically qualify, and with EGR and FHE likely leaving half the top 20 open, both teams could conceivably make the top-20 cut. I sure hope they do - whoever makes it through looks like a top-15 team in D2.

Haslett Girls (currently 5th)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 5, 19, 20, 22, 59

Haslett's got the ideal setup - 4 solid runners with a huge gap to the 5th, little chance of a direct qualification - but faces a tough, tough region. Getting past current #4 Owosso for the qualifying spot won't be easy. If they do, things are looking promising - the Vikings' #4 girl finished 13th at Monday's CAAC Red meet, a race containing 5 of the region's top 7 teams. Beat Owosso, get ahead of some of DeWitt's #4-7, and Haslett goes to Brooklyn.

Frankenmuth Boys (currently 3rd)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 3, 12, 13, 21, 39

'Muth is somewhat safely in right now, but given the potential chaos in this region, with six different teams seemingly capable of a top-three finish, they're worth discussing here. A lot of Frankenmuth's boys have been quite up-and-down this year, too, so if anyone could get a worse team finish while improving their #4's position, it's these Eagles.

Frankenmuth Girls (currently 2nd)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 1, 4, 17, 18, 26

Yeah, things are pretty weird in everyone's favorite Bavarian-themed town. It's only four teams for three spots in the girls' race right now, but everything else is pretty much the same.

Freeland Girls (currently 4th)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 5, 6, 7, 10, 32

Things are sufficiently weird in Region 15 that a team can hypothetically put 4 in the top ten with a decent 5th runner and still not automatically qualify. If that happens, which it seems likely to for Freeland at the moment, the Falcons should be in without a doubt.

Shepherd Girls (currently 3rd)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 3, 12, 14, 15, 19

What I'm trying to tell you here is that Region 15 has a better chance of putting 4 teams in the state meet than any region I've ever seen. A hypothetical 4th-place Shepherd is more likely than not to get the extra bid.

Alma Girls (currently 1st)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 2, 9, 11, 21, 24

Moving along!

Goodrich Boys (currently 6th)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 10, 17, 20, 23, 41

That 6th place is a little misleading - Region 16's 3rd-6th place teams all look pretty even to me. Goodrich is the only one of the group with the right lineup pattern, though, with probably only Cranbrook even having a chance at getting 4 in the top 20 (at which point the Cranes would assuredly qualify directly).

Regina Girls (currently 3rd)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 5, 6, 16, 17, 39

Armada's a lot closer to that 3rd spot than A-net makes them look (they say 50 points, I say 20), so this is one of the more realistic opportunities, IMO. St. Clair would be good for this, too (4th runner ranked 14th), but they seem much more securely Brooklyn-bound.

Huron Boys (currently 4th)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 10, 18, 19, 23, 33

The boys from New Boston were the inspiration for this entire post! With only the slimmest chance of a direct MIS berth (you'd need multiple injuries to a top-3 team) and a relatively safe 4th place in the region, all the Chiefs need is a decent day for their 2-4. They'd really deserve it, too; if I were to put them in my top 27 right now, they'd slide in around Frankenmuth or Yale.

Adrian Girls (currently 4th)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 10, 21, 22, 25, 51

I won't blame you for forgetting about the Maples - they haven't raced since the SEC jamboree on the 14th, so they've missed out on the cool-weather PR frenzy and the big meets of Spartan/Holly weekend. As such, they probably have 4 in the top 20 right now, regardless of what A-net may claim. They could, of course, finish anywhere from 1st to 6th in the region, so that's a rather significant disclaimer.

Buchanan Boys (currently 2nd)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 13, 16, 19, 20, 35

Sure, the Bucks are in a solid spot right now, but it's still quite close in this region, and the teams behind them (Kzoo Christian, Bloomingdale, Bridgman) are well-coached, historically strong programs with a knack for showing up in the big moments. If a slip to 4th occurs, that lineup looks pretty extra-qualifier-y to me!

Laingsburg Girls (currently 4th)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 12, 23, 25, 27, 41

Not a team I expected to write about, but I'm kind of talking myself into the Wolfpack! They haven't raced any fast courses this year, so those placements are a bit inflated, and given the nature of this region (when Ithaca's your #3 team, you've got a good top 3), there's little danger of qualifying directly. Presumably, the biggest threat is current #5 Ovid-Elsie, who unfortunately don't have the right kind of lineup to 4th-team-qualify at the moment.

Stockbridge Boys (currently 2nd)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 3, 9, 12, 22, 30

Good news: there will probably be four teams in this regional satisfying the top-20 rule. Bad news: there may not be eight complete teams in total. Eight teams do have at least 5 runners right now, but three of them only have 6. It's a very shaky world out there. Assuming that particular disaster is averted, Stockbridge is probably in the most must-qualify-directly spot of this region's three contenders.

Algonac Boys (currently 3rd)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 2, 11, 16, 18, 20

The story of an Algonac 4th-place qualifier is pretty easy to map out: Someone in the top 5 has a bad day, the Muskrats slip behind Stockwell or Foley or even Liggett, but everyone else does well enough to secure the bid.

Charyl Stockwell Boys (currently 4th)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 7, 8, 14, 17, 28

Look at that, the Sentinels are (hypothetically) in already! If you're wondering why there isn't a similar pack of girls' contenders here, it's because only five complete teams have run.

St. Mary CC Boys (currently 2nd)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 3, 15, 16, 17, 20

D3 really clustered all its 4-in-the-20 possibilities in one part of the state, eh? SMCC's 6th man currently sits in 21st, so if things go very wrong somewhere, the Falcons become ideal 4th-team candidates. Of course, they'd probably prefer to just qualify directly, as would anyone else in on this page.

Erie Mason Boys (currently 3rd)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 1, 7, 9, 18, 22

Frankly, I don't see how the Eagles miss direct qualification - there are very few teams better on regional day than Erie Mason. (Clinton, in Region 27 too, also tends to do that; I'm not sure whose powers are stronger.) But hey, if it happens, they're looking good nonetheless.

Grass Lake Girls (currently 4th)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 9, 13, 16, 20, 28

Another team that, if A-net determined exact regional finishes, would nab a 4th bid right now. At the moment, it really seems like there's only one direct qualifying spot open, and that spot's currently occupied by Clinton. So this may very well hold in October.

Frankfort Girls (currently 4th)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 14, 16, 21, 22, 28

You didn't think this article would skip Michigan's messiest region, did you? The caveat with all these teams is, as usual, the 8-team minimum. We're right at 8 now, and most of those teams only have 6 or 7 runners. Frankfort's a particularly intriguing case, with their 3 and 4 (Addison Chownyk and Sofia Alaimo) both improving rapidly, though that could definitely result in a direct bid.

Grand Traverse Academy Girls (currently 1st)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 2, 7, 8, 10, 34

1st in the region, 8th in D4, and still having to think about an extra qualifying spot. That's the dark magic of Region 29, folks. A huge day at Cadillac bumped Grand Traverse far up the rankings, but it's just one day, and previous iterations of the Mustangs would absolutely be in danger of a 4th-place finish (or worse). Two of their scorers ran in the 27s just one week prior, after all.

Leelanau St. Mary Girls (currently 3rd)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 4, 11, 20, 23, 25

The Eagles lost to Frankfort on Tuesday (and it wasn't close!), then beat Buckley on Saturday. Frankfort, of course, had just lost to both teams a week earlier. I cannot stress enough how much this region has broken my brain over the years. Pick 3 or 4 teams out of a hat, and you've got as good a chance as I do. Maybe 5 teams! A new MHSAA rule will be formed from a churning storm of chaos energy over the skies of Buckley High School, as dark lightning clatters against the pines...

Sacred Heart Girls (currently 4th)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 4, 7, 20, 22, 25

Back to sanity with...Sacred Heart in a tight battle for a trip to Brooklyn? Oh boy. It's three teams for two spots, and there's a good shot that all of them get in (Sacred Heart probably has the best chance of surviving a 4th-place finish)...as long as eight complete teams finish. Right now, I'd bet on "no."

Breckenridge Girls (currently 3rd)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 10, 11, 16, 23, 24

Here we see that small-region type of 4th-place qualifier (like 2017 Hesperia): there just isn't a way for a good team to have any scorers past 30th or so. Breckenridge has a young team that should keep getting better, hopefully enough to get one of that 4/5 duo into the top 20.

Farwell Girls (currently 2nd)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 3, 8, 13, 19, 27

Farwell's a bit of a mystery team at the moment. Historically in D3, the Eagles have certainly made a splash in D4...but haven't raced a D4 team in a normal meet for three weeks. Missing out on the fast meets of the last weekend probably means they're underrated, but who knows for sure?

Webberville Boys (currently 4th)

Scoring per Athletic.net: 4, 14, 16, 21, 39

After coming within 5 spots of Carson City over the weekend, the host team could definitely qualify directly. If not, they've got full control of 4th place in one of the few D4 regions that can be counted on to provide 8 or more full teams.

You Made It, Here's A Prize

All the regional site banners!

Allendale (1, 11, 21, 31): The entry arch on GVSU's campus. The clock tower may be more recognizable, but it's quite vertical and this banner is not.

Shepherd (2, 15, 25): The street signs in the town of Shepherd all have little maple leaves on them!

Portage (3, 32): I've always seen the Portage Invite tennis courts as iconic, and I've been assured that I'm correct.

Brighton (4, 26): Why, that's Mt. Brighton, of course: a totally real, naturally-occurring mountain with real snow, reaching actual mountain heights!

Milan (5, 18): I grew up three miles outside of Milan, and I honestly couldn't come up with a workable image for it. So...here's the other Milan (the photo above is La Scala opera house).

Huron (6, 27): That's a map of the Huron River as it flows through Willow Metropark!

Milford (7): Kensington has canoes. That is a canoe. Tried to fit a paddle in there, but it didn't look right.

Mott (8, 16): You might thing think the droplet is just a pun on Waterford, and it kinda is. But the township made the pun first, and I'm just referencing it.

Cros-Lex (9, 17): This meet's all the way down at Goodells, and the course goes near this big barn museum thingy that's apparently there. (Never been myself, though I have been to Croswell for no reason.)

Chippewa Hills (10, 20, 30): Most of the Chip Hills course is in those woods right there. It's certainly not the only course in the woods, but at Chip Hills, that's kinda part of the whole brand.

South Christian (12): Using a cross felt wrong somehow, so I chose the soccer fields that host the start and finish of South Christian's course. It's just a coincidence that the Sailors are the defending boys' state champs in the sport, with 6 total titles for boys and girls since 2010.

Bangor (13, 22): Matt said this pretty caboose is in Bangor somewhere, and the railway runs right through downtown and alongside the XC course. So here's a train (that, uh, has no caboose).

DeWitt (14, 24): You're looking at Google Street View of the I-69 on-ramp at DeWitt Rd. The other side of those trees is DeWitt's XC course. Highway shields seemed an appropriate choice.

East Jordan (19, 28): East Jordan Iron Works makes a large percentage of the manhole covers you walk on every day. A classic design, stamped with the EJIW letters, honors the town's industry.

Napoleon (23, 34): The course at Sharp Park runs right around the rotunda at the top of the hill. No word on whether the dogs in the photo will be there on regional day.

Buckley (29): Their mascot is a yellow bear. That is a yellow bear.

Webberville (33): Webberville's course is on a real farm, and farms have tractors. I'm not sure why it's pulling a banner like an advertising plane, though, other than it looks cool.