State Meet Deep Dive: D2 Boys

    In lieu of a full state preview this year, I've chosen to focus on one section of the meet: the D2 boys' race, which looks to be the most competitive one of the day. I spoke with several of the title contenders' coaches and took a closer look at their teams.

Season in Review

    There were high hopes for FHE coming off a stellar track season, but a few questions remained headed into the season. Would 1600/3200 strength translate to the grass? How do you replace a low-stick like Aiden Sullivan? The Hawks answered both of those questions ("absolutely" and "shockingly easily", respectively) with their crushing win at South Christian's Under the Lights meet. FHE scored 22 points in the Twilight race, putting all scorers under 17:00. Brendan Hoving, Liam Hinman, and Henry Dixon showed the first iteration of their three-headed monster; Hoving was the top runner this time, but Dixon has emerged as the #1 for most of the season.

    

    Shepherd brought the Hawks' first big-time clash, against not only EGR but also several eventual D1 state qualifiers (plus UP champs Marquette). No issues there, either - a 46-point win over EGR, with the big three all under 16:00. Portage...went a tad differently. To be clear, the Hawks didn't run poorly in any sense. Hoving PRed, Dixon and Hinman improved their ratings from Shepherd, and #4 Cooper Jacobsen was only 5 spots behind Hinman. Pinckney just happened to run an absurd race, beating FHE by 6. 

Analysis

    Despite their narrow loss at Portage, FHE is the clear #1 heading into MIS. Dixon, Hinman, and Hoving are running all-state type efforts every week, and while other teams do have a great top three (Pinckney, EGR), the Hawks' group is much more consistent. I think they're all capable of hitting a 200+ speed rating on Saturday, like Pinckney's boys did at Portage. Cooper Jacobsen has been a rock-solid #4, and on most teams, he'd be a clear top-three boy. Tate Miller's as solid of a #5 as you can find anywhere - in this group of five teams, only Allendale clearly has someone who can compete with him. Luke Ueland and Tyler Endres can keep up with him, too, which is a neat trick for pushing down the 4th and 5th scorers from other teams.

    Now, FHE's unique in this group - they're the only ones who haven't won a boys' state title. This is the best chance they've ever had, and with such a senior-laden team, it's the best chance they'll have for a while. I'm sure the kids all know that, and we'll see if it propels them to victory on Saturday.

    If it feels like I don't have much to say here, it's because FHE is just such a solid team - there's no flaws to poke at, no weird little fluctuations or big question marks. I'll close this section with an assessment from a rival coach:

    "FHE, man they are really good. We have known it all year, and they aren't fading. They are coached well, they are super motivated and have been classy every time we have interacted. [...] IMO they are the team to beat right now."

Historical Comparison

    2018 Chelsea. Very experienced team full of juniors and seniors. A big three without a super-obvious elite runner (Carson Rabbitt, Foster Thorburn, Will Scott). Very solid 4-5-6 (Zander Hartsuff, Joseph Norwood, Owen Smith). This went incredibly well for the Bulldogs at states, who edged past Fremont by 13 points to win the state title. It's a hard formula to beat, and that should give FHE good feelings heading into Saturday.

How They'll Win

    The Hawks are the favorites here, so to some extent, they just need to run like they're supposed to. But specifically: the big three need to make all-state. Cooper Jacobsen should be close to them, relatively speaking. I trust the 5th spot to work itself out from there.

Season in Review

    Four of our five contenders are within a 15-mile radius of downtown Grand Rapids. Pinckney, a whopping 95 miles away, is solitarily flying the flag for the east side of Michigan, and they've barely encountered the other top teams this year. What we've seen has been pretty good, though. The Pirates sent limited lineups to Milford and Holly, getting understandably meh team results alongside two individual wins for Evan Loughridge. Pinckney also took home the title at the Coaching Legends Classic, and they're the SEC White champions - traditionally one of the toughest D2 leagues, featuring Adrian and Chelsea. Regionals was a breeze: Pinckney scored 24 points, putting their full lineup in the top 14, and Loughridge got yet another win.

    But let's talk about the one time they did meet up with the Grand Rapids crew. Pinckney was very much unproven heading into Portage, but they proceeded to shock the field, coming away with a 6-point win over Forest Hills Eastern. Evan Loughridge won (worth noting that Connell Alford and TJ Hansen chose the D1 race), Paul Moore was 5th, and Ethan Sandula was 7th. Five Pirates PRed. It's hard to imagine the meet going any more perfectly, and if Pinckney can replicate that, they'll be on track for a title.

Analysis

    Pinckney's biggest advantage over the rest of the field: Evan Loughridge. He's only lost once this year, to Connell Alford at SEC Jamboree #2, and he's beaten nearly everyone important in D2 (notable exception: TJ Hansen). He'll very likely be the first runner from any of the contending teams to cross the line on Saturday. Paul Moore and Ethan Sandula, while somewhat less consistent than Loughridge, could also be ahead of everyone else if they have good days. Matching their performances from regionals could do the job. 

    

    The 4-5 spots are harder to pin down. Several different Pirates have rotated through the bottom part of the lineup; at regionals, #4 was freshman Cole McCraw and #5 was senior Parker Hays. McCraw, like EGR's Lucas Aardema and Allendale's Mason Hill, has progressed mightily this season and will be a major factor if he gets MIS right on the first try. Zach Newman, not in the regional lineup, hit a higher speed rating at Portage than the others have anywhere. Then there's Kyle Osborne - more consistent than the other three, but without the higher peaks. Expect him to hold strong and keep Pinckney in contention if the others are having a rough day.

    Zooming way out, this is a crucial year for Pinckney. Once the kings of D1, three-peating from 2005 to 2007, the school's plummeting enrollment has dropped the Pirates into the middle of D2 and made it considerably tougher to find enough talent. There are half as many students at Pinckney as there were a decade ago - that's not great! This is also a pretty old team, with potentially four seniors in scoring positions. Point is, if Pinckney doesn't win a trophy this year, it might be a while before the opportunity arises again.

Historical Comparison

    2022 Pinckney. I hate to do this, but it's a pretty obvious parallel. The Pirates were underdogs heading into Portage, where they won by 5 over Chelsea. They had a strong top three - Loughridge, Moore, and Zach deBeauclair - with inconsistency at the 4th and 5th spots. Ultimately, it didn't quite work at states, where the team was a very close 3rd, but perhaps this year's group has learned some lessons.

How They'll Win

    Get that top three in as soon as possible. There's a good chance the Pirates' 4th and 5th will be further back than most other contenders, but it'll be hard for other teams to do much about that if Ethan Sandula's finishing in 12th or something like that. I'm pretty sure the rest of the lineup will turn out fine, especially given McCraw's improvement through October.

Season in Review

    Entering 2023, it was clear Allendale's young guys would be pretty good. But how good exactly? The Falcons' season-opening win in the Sunset race at South Christian UTL was nice, if neither surprising nor extremely impressive. Those paying close attention may have spotted signs of greatness in the relatively fast times at Fremont's Hill & Bale invite, particularly Ronnie Silveira's 16:43 (just behind Sean Pettis, a likely top-ten D2 runner). 

    For most, then, MSU was the introduction to the power of this lineup. Allendale scored 76 points to win the Bronze race at Forest Akers, demolishing a field with fellow D2 state qualifiers Alma, Gladwin, and Yale. Two weeks later, the Falcons took an even more impressive win at home over Jenison and Grand Haven (sans Seth Norder, but still). 3rd place at Portage, 28 behind Pinckney, cemented Allendale's spot as a title contender, and the Falcons finished October with an 11-point regional win over Grand Rapids Christian.

Analysis

    Phil Jones is one of the more accomplished coaching names in West Michigan - he took Black River to 3rd place in D3 back in the 2010s, and spent time as an assistant at Hope College. Despite seeing plenty of success at those previous stops, Jones thinks his first group of Allendale Falcons "is on another level." While I haven't had the opportunity to see their motivation, self-reflection, and hard work (all things Jones cites as positives about this squad) firsthand, the results back it up. Portage made it clear that these boys aren't just ready to win in 2024, they can win now. And in their home invite, the Falcons comfortably beat D1 #11 Jenison and D1 #3 Grand Haven (even if Norder had been there, Allendale still would have won). They're one of the state's best teams in any division, and it looks like they're only getting better from here.

    The elephant in the room is the youth. Barring something very strange happening, no seniors will score for the Falcons at states. At least two underclassmen will score. Not the sort of group that usually wins at MIS, at least for boys. That led to some doubts this summer, both from myself and others. But now? I'll just hand it to Coach Jones here, talking about the preseason: 

    "Yes, these guys are young, but I felt like if we got Kilian Whalen back running to his talent and to have the other 4 improve as well, we would be in great shape." 

And that's exactly what happened. Whalen, sub-16 as a freshman, bounced back after a difficult sophomore season, and he's consistently been the Falcons' #2 or #3 through October. The other returners took care of business, and freshman Mason Hill has emerged as a remarkably consistent 5th man; as Jones put it, Hill has been "more than a pleasant surprise that we really needed." 

    This also isn't your typical young team. Five of the seven runners expected to race on Saturday were at MIS last year, where the Falcons were 11th - exactly in line with Armelagos' projections. They've been here before, they keep running consistently, they've shown up for big meets...I'm not sure what more you could want. As an opposing coach put it: "They are confident, running well, and certainly have good reason to think they can take home the trophy." 

Historical Comparison

    2014 Fremont. A very young team that seemed destined to win a title - but not quite yet. That year's Packer squad had 5 sophomores, 1 junior, and 1 senior in their lineup, and they finished a close 2nd to Grand Rapids Christian. One year later, Fremont put all scorers in the top 35 as they took the state title by a 93-point margin. (Bodes well for 2024 Allendale, doesn't it?)

How They'll Win

    There's two obvious routes here.

• Whalen and Tiethof could be a lot closer to Silveira. It's happened before - Allendale's incredible performance vs Jenison + Grand Haven at home - and that would make their team structure look like an even better version of Pinckney or FHE, with three all-staters and two around 70th or so.
• Hill and Ashworth finish with Ben Gross. More so than anyone else on this team, those two have been improving massively over the season. If the whole top 6 gets in the top 60ish, it would take quite an effort for anyone to beat the Falcons.

Season in Review

    Your defending champs. EGR returned 4 of their 5 scorers from their title-winning 2022 squad, and when they've had their full lineup, the Pioneers have consistently looked like they'd have a shot at going back-to-back. Sure, they were 3rd at South Christian to kick off the season, but that was without two of their usual scorers. 

    More than any other team, EGR has raced the other top contenders a lot. They were 2nd to GRC at Ottawa Hills, 2nd to FHE at Shepherd, 6th (without Ryan Brinker) at Portage behind all of the other top teams, 2nd to FHE at regionals, and they raced GRC at all four OK White meets. On one hand, that's a lot of races and not a lot of wins. But they've proven they can keep it close with any of these teams.

Analysis

    Perennial powerhouse EGR finally won their first boys' title in 2022, and while most of the championship-winning group is back, the team feels a lot different. The Pioneers barely had an all-stater last year - Ryan Brinker was the top finisher in 28th - but there could be as many as three this time. Brinker's one of those; despite missing most of track season and barely running ground miles all summer due to injury, he hasn't run slower than 16:13 all season. Jonah Workman has made a classic sophomore jump, hitting a stunning 15:33 at Shepherd. And then there's Alex Thole. Thole had an incredible spring, running 4:23 and 9:29, and according to EGR coach Drew Collette, Thole "came off track season with a clear goal of being a top 5 guy at XC state." We'll find out Saturday, but he sure seems to be on pace for it: consistently running in the 15s, 4th at Shepherd, and 2nd at Portage.

    Now for the tricky part. There's a very good chance EGR puts 3 runners across the line before Allendale and Grand Rapids Christian; they should be about level with FHE and Pinckney. The rest of the lineup hasn't been quite on that level, though. Sophomore Jack Edison has been somewhat ahead of the rest of the Pioneers, and he'll likely be the 4th man at MIS. After that...hard to say. Davis Christy, Sam Hillary, and Lucas Aardema all seem like possible #5s, with some pretty variable results throughout the year. "We know 1-5 we are as good as anyone, and while we haven't put it all together on the same day yet, we train and focus all year on one day," says Collette. 

Historical Comparison

    2022 East Grand Rapids. I know, I just said it's a very different-looking team. But the Pioneers are once again heading into states as one of the less likely contenders - last year, Armelagos had EGR 3rd behind Pinckney and Chelsea, with a 22% chance of a title. From Coach Collette:

    "We were actually reading the [2022] SpeedRatings state preview before the Regional, and it is crazy how similar this year feels to last year for us. Super good teams to compete against, everyone counting us on the outside looking in."

How They'll Win

    Obviously, the top four have to take care of business, but the Pioneers really need a strong 5th runner to bring home a trophy. Last year, Davis Christy did exactly that, outrunning projections by about 30 spots and more than making up for a slightly underwhelming day for the top guys. Christy's certainly capable of that again, but keep an eye on Lucas Aardema, too - he's gotten better every race.

Season in Review

   You can always assume Grand Rapids Christian will have a great team. "There are great traditions at GR Christian, which is why they have great teams every year," as one opposing coach put it, and this year's no different. The Eagles, led by XC and track all-stater Simon Triezenberg, kicked things off with a demolition at Benzie, scoring 34 points and putting 7 runners in the top 17 of a clearly overmatched field. Ottawa Hills a few weeks later was perhaps a more appropriate challenge, featuring defending D2 champs EGR and a strong D1 team in Jenison; the Eagles won that one, too, by a solid 24 points. Cougar Falcon? Another win, about 50 points ahead of Fremont and Holland Christian. GRC won again at Otsego, rolling past Plainwell and putting all scorers in the top 18.

    

    So far so good! October, however, was a bit less kind to the Eagles. In their first meeting this season with any top team not named EGR, GRC was 4th at Portage, 48 points away from meet winners Pinckney. Triezenberg was the only Eagle to make the top 25 there. They narrowly fended off EGR at the OK White final, then placed 2nd at regionals behind Allendale. The Falcons put 5 runners in front of GRC's 3rd, rather more dominant than the 11-point margin suggests - however, Keegan Hoekstra didn't run for the Eagles, so things may have gone differently with a full lineup.   

Analysis

    I've got a pretty good sense of how the other four teams are looking right now - no idea who'll win, but they're straightforward to understand. GRC? Not entirely sure what they are. September's squad was clearly a title contender. But the late-season Eagles are pretty clearly behind Allendale, at least. #1 Simon Triezenberg has been a clear all-stater all year, though GRC would probably prefer to see the results he got at Portage or Cougar Falcon, not regionals or Otsego.

    Dylan Clark and Keegan Hoekstra should be the Eagles' 2nd and 3rd boys. Clark, for his part, has been the most consistent runner on the team; in the four big meets of the past month-ish, his speed ratings have all been in the low 190s. He's run at MIS three times before, and it's never gone too badly, so he should be very prepared for Saturday. Meanwhile, Hoekstra's hit higher peaks, but he's also been as far down as GRC's 5th runner at conferences. He also didn't race at regionals, so...we'll see.

    GRC's greatest strength is certainly their depth. The 4th-7th runners aren't always consistent, but as long as 2 of the 4 have a good day (which has always happened this year), the Eagles are in a good place. Three of these boys are seniors, with a combined 5 MIS appearances - Jonathan Koetje, a 20:45 freshman, is progress personified; Joe Waalkes has been varsity all four years and may have the highest ceiling of the group; and Peter Kuperus is probably the most consistent. They're joined by South Carolinian transfer Micah Small, a sophomore who's also been pretty steady in his first year here.

    One last thing: GRC's girls are heavily expected to win their race - if the boys win, too, it'll be the first D2 sweep since 2014, when the Eagles themselves pulled it off.

Historical Comparison

    2021 St Johns. The Redwings had one pretty solid all-stater in Griffin Armbrustmacher (your Triezenberg parallel, complete with the long surname), a few more with the potential to get on the podium (Joey Bowman and Michael Dennis = Dylan Clark and Keegan Hoekstra?), and a sufficient 4-5 of Isaac Staib and Tyler Dohm to keep them in contention (equivalent to...whoever GRC's 4-5 are). Despite being rather far outside in the rankings, down in 5th, St Johns had an incredible day at states to finish 3rd, 15 points from a title. Not only was Armbrustmacher an all-stater, but Bowman and Dennis were, too - all finishing in the top 16. If GRC can pull off something similar, it might be enough to win.

How They'll Win

    Just talked about it, really. We know the depth is solid. Having 7 boys who, if they were in the scoring 5, wouldn't cause alarm? That's a great spot to be in, and I don't think any other contender can say that. But who's going to be up front with Triezenberg? GRC has to get Clark and Hoekstra up there, and move the entire pack up by a little bit.