Mid-Season Recap: A Statistical View

Folks, there's only about a month left of the season. Just over two weeks until regionals. Let's see what everyone's been up to!

How the System Works

I've used my Michigan Points System (name is a work in progress) a few times before, but I'll go over it again, since it's probably new to some of y'all. The basic idea comes from the USTFCCCA, with a few tweaks to make it work better for HS rankings. 

Athletes get points for ranking in the top 25 in their division (20 points maximum) or for exceeding the state AQ mark (calibrated such that 20 points = average state champion mark from the past 10 seasons). This means that sometimes, more than 25 people will get points from a certain event if they've all hit the AQ. (This is already happening in the D1 boys 1600!) A few additional things to keep in mind:

• Because so few meets, especially early in the season, use wind gauges, I'm keeping any results that aren't blatantly incorrect. There are 200 results involved in this process just for the 100m, and I can't possibly check all of them for weather conditions. In the meantime, get a wind gauge!
• To parallel actual meets, only 4 events can be counted for a given athlete. This does get tricky with relays, but I'll do what I can to maximize a team's score. If a relay doesn't list its members, I'll make the reasonable assumption that it included their top runners in that event.
• Results from indoor meets taking place in outdoor season do count, as the MHSAA doesn't care. And while I'd like to see more meets outdoors when weather permits, I'm not convinced that the top indoor runners are any different than the top outdoor runners.
• Results from full miles/2-miles have been converted and added to the rankings where appropriate. Some meets do this already, some don't.
• All marks are accurate through April 30.

If you want to see your team's ranking and score breakdown, let me know!

Division 1 Boys

1) ST JOSEPH  227.26

Top Scorer: Trey McGinnis (sprints) 110.81

Despite being one of the smallest schools in D1, St Joe keeps putting out solid teams, and they've scored in everything from the 100 to the 4x8. It's yet to result in a trophy, or even a top-ten finish at states, but this is the best Bears team yet. The strong sprint squad remains, but there's scoring potential for distance, too, and Gerald Capaccio should give them plenty of points from the throws. Nearly everyone involved is a senior, so it's now or never.

2) ANN ARBOR HURON 187.43

Top Scorer: Braxton Brann (sprints/hurdles) 163.15

Braxton Brann currently leads the rankings in four events (100, 200, 110h, 300h), and while I'm not sure Huron has significant scoring potential elsewhere, 40 points is often enough for a trophy. Braxton's brother Ashton could make the 300 hurdles podium, though, and I'm interested to see what the River Rats can put together for a Braxton-less relay.

3) ZEELAND WEST 171.97

Top Scorer: Skyler Geurink (sprints) 45.09

You don't necessarily need one big star to win a trophy. Rockford didn't have one in 2021, and runner-up Farmington arguably didn't last year, either. Zeeland West has done well in the past by sending out strong relays and cobbling together a few points from other events, and in what's currently looking like a low-scoring year, that could easily be a winning strategy. 

4) ROCHESTER ADAMS 161.40

Top Scorer: Damarcus Rouse (sprints) 70.75

Adams came awful close to a first-ever podium last year, and the emergence of 800/1600 star Parker Orlowsky could get the Highlanders a trophy in 2023. It'll take a similar approach to Zeeland West - get those relay points, then see what you can score in the wide-open 400 and 800. There's a very clear path to 40 points here, if not more.

5) GRAND HAVEN 154.14

Top Scorer: Seth Norder (distance) 84.76

Distance-focused teams really tend to struggle in the D1 boys' meet - you have to go back to 2003 to find a state champ with half or more of their points coming in distance events. This could be the year for that to change. Seth Norder clearly has the potential to win the 1600 and 3200 (though that won't be easy), and Nolan Clark can probably score in two events as well. The surprise X factor in all of this? Pole vaulter Tobias Robbins, currently ranked 4th.

OTHER NOTABLE TEAMS

6) Northville (150.38): Step 1, win the 4x8. Step 2, get points from Brendan Herger in the 16 and/or 32. Step 3, throw your other sub-2:00 guys at the open 8. Result, 35ish points?

7) East Kentwood (150.09): They're not that far away from 1st, and they're EK. Never discount the Falcon boys.

8) Battle Creek Lakeview (127.91): Another easy championship narrative to tell. Berryhill gets 15-20 in the throws, Bost wins the 800, 10-15 relay points, and maybe a point or two from Davis Barr or Aiden Moore. 

9) Rockford (127.36): Huge surprise, honestly, but it all comes down to the sprint relays once again. Wichita State commit Colin Graham as a potential distance scorer could be helpful, too.

10) Detroit U-D Jesuit (116.98): Pretty clear we haven't seen 100% of UDJ's potential at this point. Jaiden Reed will be a title contender again, and so will the Cubs as a whole.

21) Troy (58.00): Yes, the Colts really do have a podium contender. They absolutely need things to break their way, but Troy could absolutely score points in the 400, 3200, and 3 relays. Could be enough!

22) Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (55.26): Same story as UDJ - the points will come, just be patient.

24) Brighton (48.34): I'm shocked the Bulldogs ended up this low. Liam Kinney currently leads D1 in the pole vault and could score in both hurdle races, and I would never bet on Brighton being shut out in distance.

Division 1 Girls

1) OAK PARK 337.74

Top Scorer: Nonah Waldron (hurdles) 92.04

No surprises here. The biggest challenge for the Knights may be figuring out who's on the relays, as multiple Oak Park girls could be all-state contenders in 2 or 3 individual events. I'm not sure there are any bad options, though, and they're the clear favorites for the overall title right now.

2) ANN ARBOR PIONEER 278.52

Top Scorer: Rachel Forsyth (distance) 111.44

Right now, it seems like Forsyth could win any event she enters, so the podium chase comes down to Pioneer's other scoring options. Emily Cooper and Sylvia Sanok Dufallo could get points in the distance events, while Maya Rollins is probably the best hurdler not from Oak Park this year. 

3) DETROIT RENAISSANCE 207.47

Top Scorer: Jayla Dace (sprints) 53.99

Losing an all-American sprinter doesn't seem to have set the Phoenix back too far. They've reloaded well, and the 4x1 and 4x2 can easily go toe-to-toe with Oak Park. The key to a trophy: how much can Renaissance run up the score in the open sprints with athletes like Kamryn Tatum and Taryn Henderson standing in their way?

4) ROCKFORD 168.39

Top Scorer: Greta Caprathe-Buczek (jumps) 78.79

It's not easy to do well at states with a field-event-focused squad, but Rockford's here to test the limits of that assumption. Between Greta Caprathe-Buczek and Maya Anderson, they've got three top-3 rankings in the jumps, plus two more potential scorers in Hailey Hill and Maiya Corrigan.

5) WALLED LAKE CENTRAL 155.04

Top Scorer: Savannah Breitwiser (throws) 61.41

Strength in numbers, taken as literally as possible, is the Vikings' T&F strategy. Three different WLC girls rank in the top 10 in the throwing events - last year they got 22 of their 24 state points in the throws. Kylei Anderson will also be a big help, ranking high in the 100m hurdles and high jump.

OTHER NOTABLE TEAMS

7) East Kentwood (116.33): A bit of a different look for EK this year, but field events are still key thanks to indoor PV champ Victoria Spitzley. Alana Bracey's rapid rise up the hurdle rankings helps, too.

8) Woodhaven (105.35): It usually takes higher scores to podium for D1 girls than boys, so just having two big stars (Maya Justice and Payton Scheffler) may not give the Warriors a podium unless the relays really come through. Top 5, though, is well within reach.

11) Saline (95.63): For the first time in a while, Saline's girls appear stronger than the boys. They've got the traditional mid-distance prowess from Mia Rogan, among others, but the Hornets will need big field event points from Nicole Warren and Jacki Kolano to become podium contenders.

12) Farmington Hills Mercy (90.72): D1's only all-girls school has two potential state champs in Taryn Henderson and Milena Chevallier, who led the state indoors in the 200m and high jump, respectively. 

17) Holland West Ottawa (80.09): We haven't seen the Panthers at the same strength they had in XC. If everyone's healthy and racing in June, this is a podium contender.

Division 2 Boys

1) WHITEHALL 277.49

Top Scorer: Malcolm Earvin (sprints) 74.65

An obvious title contender, bringing back all but one of their scorers from last year's 3rd place finish. The sprints and relays remain strong, though distance points from Andre Richmond and/or Carter McIlroy could be decisive.

2) CORUNNA 195.08

Top Scorer: Wyatt Bower (sprints/jumps) 80.40

These aren't your Noah Jacobs-era Cavs anymore - they could win states without a single distance point. (To underline that point, Noah's little brother is on the highly-ranked 4x1 and 4x2 squads.) Just like Whitehall, though, Corunna could get a few distance points, especially from their strong 4x8.

3) ADRIAN 190.83

Top Scorer: Jake Eagling (distance) 47.22

Having 4 runners ranked in the top 16 at 800 meters is probably a good start to winning a trophy. From that, the Maples have derived a top-ranked 4x4 and 4x8, and once you add in Braylon Petty's 3200m potential and sophomore Isaiah Fox in the hurdles? Could be a first-ever state track title for Adrian.

4) FOREST HILLS EASTERN 174.63

Top Scorer: Aiden Sullivan (distance) 57.86

FHE's all-out distance assault, coupled with some strong sprint relays, has the Hawks squarely in the podium chase. Worth noting that defending 800m champ Aiden Sullivan is only ranked 12th in that event because he hasn't been in any fast races yet - that score's only going up from here.

5) BERRIEN SPRINGS 172.96

Top Scorer: Jake Machiniak (sprints) 63.50

The defending state champs lost a lot, but as always, they've found themselves right back in it this year. Jake Machiniak and Jared Wilburn have stepped up massively to fill the void in the short sprints, while CJ Gordon and Karl Krause are sneaky all-state contenders in the field.

OTHER NOTABLE TEAMS

6) Freeland (161.85): Having (as of now) the top distance runner in the division is a good way to secure at least 20-25 points. We'll see if Braydon Honsinger can add to TJ Hansen's points.

7) Frankenmuth (157.15): Look at those scores - the preseason favorites are not out of it whatsoever. Muth hasn't run any fast relays yet, and since I fully expect them to do so...watch out.

8) Spring Lake (151.16): The Lakers' main problem is that Jaxson Tober can only do four events. Their insane depth may be enough to put together all-state relays without him, though.

Division 2 Girls

1) EAST GRAND RAPIDS 195.93

Top Scorer: Drew Muller (distance) 77.41

EGR won last year with an insurmountable sum of distance points, and they'll be trying it again this year with a similar group. Winning all four distance events, while quite possible, might not be enough - Sadey Seyferth and Gracie Putnam might need to score for the Pioneers to go back-to-back.

2) OTSEGO 171.83

Top Scorer: Haley Guerrant (throws) 57.55

Otsego has a bit less distance firepower than EGR, but they make up for it with 3rd-ranked thrower Haley Guerrant and undefeated long jumper Nyla Reed. Incredibly, any trophy would be the Otsego girls' first in track.

3) TECUMSEH 155.80

Top Scorer: Brianna Rhodea (sprints/hurdles) 44.07

Tecumseh's got a little bit of everything: an awesome set of relays, top-ten rankings in the 200m and 100h from Brianna Rhodea, the extremely underrated Kaylee Pesta in distance events, and top-ranked pole vaulter Jordyn Wright. (SEC pole vault dominance remains!) D2 is not a two-team race right now.

4) STURGIS 143.02

Top Scorer: Keyanna O'Tey (sprints) 80.09

Thriving in their D2 return, the Trojans would be a solid team even if they just had O'Tey, who's currently #1 in the short sprints. Add in Berkley Holtz, a scoring threat in all three distance events, and you get a dark-horse podium contender.

5) MASON 138.94

Top Scorer: Riley Gill (hurdles) 62.09

There's absolutely a universe where Riley Gill sweeps the hurdles, Meghan Ford gets double-digit points in the distance events, two Bulldog relays make the podium, and Mason goes over 40 points total. Surely that'd get some flavor of trophy, right?

OTHER NOTABLE TEAMS

6) Grand Rapids Christian (137.69): I'm pretty confident we haven't seen the best of GRC yet. Put together the multitalented Rowan Cebulski, distance star Natalie VanOtteren, and long relays that can challenge EGR, and you'll get a potential championship squad.

7) Saginaw Swan Valley (135.18): We're seeing a lot of teams built around two stars; for Swan Valley, that's Sydney Kuhn and Lyberty Brandt. Essentially all of the Vikings' points come from those two, who currently lead the 300h and high jump, respectively.

9) New Boston Huron (101.36): There's a decent chance Elizabeth Anderson delivers 30 points for the Chiefs all by herself. Even if nobody else scores, 30 is a lot!

13) Owosso (73.63): Owosso's got two girls capable of winning the pole vault (Libby Summerland and Claire Agnew), and one for high jump (Peyton Spicer). Summerland could also score in the 400.

18) Shepherd (65.75): The Bluejays tend to show up when it counts, especially in the relays - and they're already ranked very highly in 3 of the 4. What can Ariel and Gracie Warner add to that in their solo events?

25) Goodrich (55.18): They haven't shown it yet outdoors, but Goodrich has the talent to push any of these teams. Layla Jordan's a title contender in the 800 (and/or 400?), and the Martians' relays are incredibly strong.

Division 3 Boys

1) HART 252.73

Top Scorer: Kellen Kimes (throws): 82.80

It's a wide-open team race, but Hart is your surprising leader at the end of April. We knew Kellen Kimes would be great, but seeing Clayton Ackley among the top 5 individuals and the Pirates getting big points in the sprint relays?

2) PEWAMO-WESTPHALIA 243.59

Top Scorer: Trevor Smith (sprints) 61.03

Never a surprise to see P-W here! Sophomore Trevor Smith has been a revelation, placing 3rd behind two D2 boys in the 100 & 200 at Kent City Elite, while Collin Farmer and Gavin Nurenberg are right where we thought they'd be in distance and throws.

3) CHESANING 161.53

Top Scorer: Levi Maier (distance) 42.62

The 2017 champs have a talented young team, and with nearly everyone returning next year (Levi Maier, #2 in the 800, is the exception), we may see this group get a second trophy soon.

4) BENZIE CENTRAL 145.16

Top Scorer: Hunter Jones (distance) 75.51

Benzie will absolutely be up with Hart and P-W by the end of the season - Hunter just hasn't gone all-out in any 800 or 3200 races yet. Even if he can't pull off the triple this time, Spanish exchange student Pol Molins should score big points in the distance events, too. 

5) CLARE 121.26

Top Scorer: Brad White (distance) 32.17

Clare has no true star - top scorer Brad White's top event ranking is 7th - but strong relays and a bunch of potential scorers could get the Pioneers a trophy if everything clicks at the state meet.

OTHER NOTABLE TEAMS

6) Burton Atherton (115.39): The Wolverines got very good very quickly, and having scored in the 4x1 and 4x2 last year, they've shown they can perform at states.

7) Ithaca (114.20): Highly-ranked sprint relays, plus distance ace Parks Allen, give Ithaca a great shot at a top-5 finish or better.

9) Sanford Meridian (102.06): Meridian knows how to do well at states - the Mustangs won two titles in the 2010s - and they're following a similar formula this year. Brayden Riley and his merry band of sprinters can score in individual or relay events, and there's tons of talent in the jumps, too.

Division 3 Girls

1) HART 291.43

Top Scorer: Jessica Jazwinski (distance) 108.47

The defending champs remain #1, as they did in the preseason, and getting 2 athletes among the top 10 scorers is a great way to win a title. Adding the rest of the Pirates' distance crew helps, too.

2) PEWAMO-WESTPHALIA 272.87

Top Scorer: Saige Martin (hurdles) 71.18

P-W has elite athletes everywhere - Saige Martin in the hurdles and short relays, Addison Trierweiler in the pole vault, Whitney Werner in distance, and freshman sensation Elly Bengel in the open sprints. Looking at the top teams for boys and girls, I'll note that no D3 team has won both titles since 2002 Yale.

3) LANSING CATHOLIC 229.70

Top Scorer: Hannah Pricco (distance) 83.96

Lansing Catholic's terrific distance trio of Pricco, Jones, and Roe are competing in an incredibly strong year for D3 distance (find me a year with better D3 girls than Osterberg/Ross/Jazwinski!), but their strength in numbers could be the difference-maker.

4) OLIVET 221.90

Top Scorer: Payton Otto (throws) 63.57

In their D3 return, Olivet can expect a ton of field points from throwers Payton Otto and Emma Kelenske, and there's a few high-ranked relays, too. And freshman Emily Peters is a title contender in the 300m hurdles.

5) LAWTON 205.73

Top Scorer: Heidi Newhouse (sprints/jumps) 108.91

Defending state HJ champ Heidi Newhouse remains #1 in that event, and she's in the top 3 for the 200 and 400. Kendra Koster can score in any distance event, and Rylee Oxley may be the best vaulter in D3 not from West Catholic.

OTHER NOTABLE TEAMS

6) Onsted (197.32): If anyone can pull off the 400-800 double, it's Emmry Ross - her double at Napoleon last month would in fact rank #1 in both events right now. 20 points from one athlete would be nice, wouldn't it!

7) Jackson Lumen Christi (152.37): Meanwhile, Madison Osterberg may be trying for a double of her own (either 8-16 or 16-32, we'll have to wait and see). The Titans are also one of just 3 D3 squads to break 10:00 in the 4x8 this season.

8) Quincy (132.91): The Orioles have two top-ten throwers, and Sophia Snellenberger is about 9 feet ahead of the discus competition right now. They'll need scoring elsewhere to make a team podium, though - how about pole vaulter Lita Fulton, maybe?

Division 4 Boys

1) CONCORD 240.02

Top Scorer: Mekhi Wingfield (jumps) 94.91

One of the best track programs of the 2010s, Concord hasn't earned a trophy since 2015. That might change in this up-for-grabs year, with Mekhi Wingfield leading the whole state in the long jump and Adair Artis becoming an elite mid-distance athlete.

2) READING 238.52

Top Scorer: Tayshawn Bester (hurdles) 110.78

So many of these contending teams are built around two great athletes - for Reading, that's Tayshawn Bester and Tyler Bays. Both have only lost one individual race this season, and they're top contenders in two events each. Their combination in the 4x4 could clinch the Rangers' 4th state title.

3) WYOMING POTTER'S HOUSE 233.17

Top Scorer: Lezawe Osterink (distance) 98.38

The Pumas don't have much outside of distance this year, but in this rare situation, they might not need anything else. Osterink is probably the favorite in anything he runs, while Jackson Rodriguez and Logan Swiney are all-state contenders in multiple events. There's a reason this team went 1-2-3 and scored 35 points at MIS.

4) FOWLER 195.15

Top Scorer: Brady Feldpausch (hurdles) 58.33

Traditionally seen as a powerhouse in girls' D4, where they've won 5 titles since 2011, Fowler's turned their group of great 2022 freshmen into title-contending 2023 sophomores. Brady Feldpausch, Nate Spicer, Cole Hufnagel, and Ford Phillips are names to remember - you'll see them lifting a team trophy sometime between now and 2025, I'd bet.

5) KALAMAZOO HACKETT 185.55

Top Scorer: Liam Mann (sprints) 78.10

Hackett won the title last year, lost most of their top sprinters to graduation, and are right back in the mix this year. 200m state champ Liam Mann leads that event and the 100m, while freshman Marek Butkiewicz is having an incredible debut season on the distance side - I'd call him a dark horse all-stater, but he's not sneaking up on anyone when he's ranked 6th in the 3200.

OTHER NOTABLE TEAMS

6) Marion (159.23): Marion has all the pieces for a state title - a multitalented star (Braden Prielipp), a supporting cast of all-state contenders (Gavin Prielipp, Mason Salisbury, Weston Cox), and relays that put everything together (...the relays). 

7) Blanchard Montabella (141.34): We'll see what Dakota Dykhuis chooses to race at states, but he's one of a few boys who, if fresh, could push Osterink. Cooper Bolton's pole vault prowess makes the Mustangs a two-pronged threat.

9) Hillsdale Academy (129.72): As always, the Colts are prepared to relay you into oblivion. They're ranked very well in the 4x4 and 4x8, and senior Max Cote's breakout hurdle season makes him the biggest individual star on the team right now.

12) Petersburg Summerfield (104.83): Like last year, the pieces are there for a very high score. Brandon Thompson has proven he can run a state-meet 4/8 double, Dakota Kohn should add double-digit throwing points, and Evan Suydam has run the 3200 well at states in the past.

Division 4 Girls

1) BUCKLEY 255.35

Top Scorer: Aiden Harrand (distance) 139.53

Having the two best athletes in the division is great, more teams should try it! Brooklynn Frazee is #2 in each sprint race, Aiden Harrand is #1 in each distance race. Tripling is hard, but I have little doubt they could make it work.

2) FOWLER 234.55

Top Scorer: Katie Spicer (sprints/jumps) 68.59

Thanks to their depth, Fowler feels like a D3 team that got lost on their way to the state meet. The Eagles may not win a single event, but they're still trophy favorites right now with top-ten entries in ten events. 

3) PORTLAND ST PATRICK 194.31

Top Scorer: Sophia Schrauben (hurdles) 61.61

St Patrick's three-leaf clover represents Sophia Schrauben, Kenzie Fedewa, and Rylee Scheurer, who are all individual title contenders but come together with Isabelle Kissane to form an incredible relay team.

4) FRANKFORT 174.71

Top Scorer: Gwyneth Dunaway (sprints) 50.28

Frankfort combines their traditional field event strength (27.45 rating points from the jumps) with top-tier sprint relays to create a team that could easily challenge for a trophy. Gwyneth Dunaway and Sofia Alaimo could individually score in the open sprints, too.

5) HILLSDALE ACADEMY 166.22

Top Scorer: Megan Roberts (sprints/distance) 94.76

Megan Roberts has 13 total all-state medals between track and XC, and she didn't even run at track states in 2022! A second mitten-shaped trophy would be a perfect sendoff for one of D4's greatest runners, and as always it's the Colt relays (#1 4x4 and 4x8) that could make it happen,

OTHER NOTABLE TEAMS 

6) Indian River Inland Lakes (159.65): Once again, let's walk through a winning scenario. 1: Larissa Huffman gets 16 hurdle points. 2: Natalie Wandrie sweeps the throws. 3: Huffman and Hannah Robinson combine for 15 in the high jump. That's 41 points, potentially enough to get past Buckley and Fowler.

7) Marlette (143.26): Olivia Findlay leads the high jump chart by 2 inches, and Lily Parker's ranked second in both throws.

8) Pittsford (139.21): A lot like Fowler - not sure they can win an event, quite possible they can win the division. Top-ten athletes in 8 events.

14) Mt Pleasant Sacred Heart (80.96): Last year's runners-up do have to replace a lot of talent, but Anna Plum and Lily Deja have really stepped up, and I at least expect the Irish to be top 10 in June.

15) St Charles (79.85): The drop to D4 is allowing the Bulldogs' sprinters and hurdlers to flourish even more than in D3, where they've won trophies in the past.